Rodolfo's Absence: A Greater Impact on Guardiola Than Messi's
Pep Guardiola has often hailed Lionel Messi as the most valuable player he's coached. However, recent events suggest that Rodolfo's absence has had a more profound effect on Manchester City's performance, leading to a significant dip in form.
Manchester City recently ended a challenging period by securing a 3-0 victory over Nottingham Forest, marking their first win in 39 days. This triumph also narrowed the gap with Liverpool to two points, following the latter's slip at St. James' Park. Notably, this was City's first win since Rodolfo received the Ballon d'Or.
During this challenging phase, Pep Guardiola faced one of his most significant crises since taking charge of Barcelona in 2008. Reflecting on the situation, he remarked, "We can't rely on Rodolfo, and we miss him dearly. He's the best player in the world. Imagine our era at Barcelona. Messi was the best then. Do you think we could have played a full season without him and won the treble?" Guardiola made these comments just hours before a 4-0 defeat to Tottenham, which ended a 742-day unbeaten streak at the Etihad Stadium.
In recent months, much has been said about Rodolfo's impressive record. Until the loss to Manchester United in the FA Cup final last May, he had gone 74 games unbeaten, surpassing the records of Paolo Maldini and Demetrio Albertini with AC Milan. This achievement underscores his indispensable role, with City's only three defeats last season occurring in his absence.
Rodolfo's significance to Guardiola appears even greater than Messi's during their time at Barcelona. Under Guardiola, Barcelona played 232 matches, with Messi missing only 23. He was the most utilized player, followed by Victor Valdes (200), Dani Alves (208), and Xavi Hernandez. Messi's contributions were staggering, with 211 goals and 94 assists, solidifying his 'otherworldly' reputation.
Those years were undoubtedly Barcelona's golden era, boasting a win percentage of 71.98%. Without Messi, the team's win rate slightly dipped to 69.57%, and losses increased from 8.13% to 13.04%. Goals scored per game decreased from an average of 2.65 to 2.43, though goals conceded also dropped from 0.75 to 0.65 per game.
In contrast, during Rodolfo's six seasons under Guardiola, he has become the seventh most-played footballer, featuring in 262 of City's 319 matches since Guardiola's arrival. This equates to missing 17.8% of games, compared to Messi's 9.9%. Additionally, Rodolfo has accumulated 47 yellow cards and one red card, having initially competed with Fernandinho for a starting spot.
Since Rodolfo's arrival, City's win percentage stands at 71.79%, mirroring Barcelona's during Messi's tenure. However, with Rodolfo on the pitch, the win rate rises to 74.05%, dropping to 61.40% in his absence. The impact on losses is even more pronounced; City's average loss rate since 2020 is 15.36%. With Rodolfo, it decreases to 12.21%, but without him, it escalates to 29.82%.